"What's New? How Is the World Treating You?" Table of Contents for the First Quarter of 2014 Kerry and Lavrov 30 March 2014Secretary of State John Kerry met in Paris with the Russian foreign minister, Servei Lavrov, in hopes of diffusing the crisis over Ukraine. Kerry reiterated America’s position that the Russian annexation of Ukraine was illegitimate, but in a televised address before the meeting, Lavrov had repeated that his country reserves the right to protect Russian speakers outside of Russia. During Sunday’s meeting, Kerry urged Lavrov to pull back that 40,000 troops near the Ukrainian border to prevent them from destabilizing Ukraine. See http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/30/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSBREA2S0K020140330 and http://news.yahoo.com/kerry-meets-lavrov-ukraine-urges-troop-pullback-011119771.html. The Latest News about Ukraine 30 March 2014In a televised address, Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, indicated that Russia is not interested in more territory from Ukraine. Nevertheless, he indicated that it would be best for Russian speakers if Ukraine federated, giving each portion political and economic control over its own territory. Lavrov’s comments came as Tatars in Crimea, who constitute about 15 percent of the population, demanded autonomy. Moscow is attempting to neutralize their demands. Lavrov likely will reiterate his position when he meets with Secretary of State John Kerry on 31 March. While on the surface, federation seems a logical choice, it is not easily instituted in areas where there has been a tradition of central rule. Furthermore, Ukrainians may fear federalization as a means of giving the large minority of Russian speakers in the east the freedom they need to begin demanding that they become a part of Russia. The presidential election in Ukraine, set for May, has taken an interesting twist. One of the main contenders, the former boxer and opposition leader, Vitaly Klitschko, has withdrawn his candidacy and has given his backing to “the chocolate king,” Petro Poroshenko, who also was prominent in the opposition to former President Viktor Yanukovych. In the race, which essentially is between Poroshenko and former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko, Poroshenko appears to have a respectable lead. Second World War Tour: Final Days 27 March 2014Lenka Kocková and Dr. Daniel E. Miller are in the final stages of putting together the 2014 Second World War tour that will take place from 8 to 23 May 2014. Those interested in participating in the tour should reserve a place by at least 31 March since payment is due on 7 April. The tour will visit noted Second World War sites in Paris and Normandy in France; Cologne, Berlin, and Dresden in Germany; and Prague in the Czech Republic. In addition, there will be visits to other cultural sites, and participants will have plenty of opportunities to explore on their own. For example, there will be five medieval cathedrals on the tour: Paris, Amiens, Aachen, Cologne, and Prague. Those who are interested in taking the tour for undergraduate or graduate credit may do so through the Department of History at University of West Florida or through their home institution. Adult participants from the general public from anywhere in the world and of any age are welcome to join the tour. In fact, most of the participants on these tours are from the public as opposed to students, and they have ranged in age from their early 20s to their middle 70s. The only requirements are a willingness to be adventuresome and to have good walking shoes! For more details, see https://sites.google.com/a/centraleuropeanobserver.com/second-world-war-tour-2014/ or contact Dr. Miller at miller-dem@earthlink.net. Bon voyage! Stephen Alexander Fischer-Galati (1924-2014) 27 March 2014The historian Stephen Alexander Fischer-Galati died on 10 March in Boulder, CO. He was born in Romania and left when the Second World War began. Fischer-Galati completed his doctoral work at Harvard, and he held a number of positions in the United States, including the New College of the University of South Florida in Sarasota. He was the founder and editor of the East European Quarterly and established the publishing firm East European Monographs that Columbia University Press distributes. See http://www.legacy.com/obituaries/dailycamera/obituary.aspx?n=stephen-fischer-galati&pid=170123186. News about Ukraine 27 March 2014In return for reforms, the International Monetary Fund announced that it is providing Ukraine with $14-18 billion in standby credit. That is in addition to the $15 billion from the European Union. A much smaller loan package from the United States of $1 billion worked its way through Congress on 17 March, and the House and Senate should reconcile the differences between their two bills shortly. In Ukraine, the controversial former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko, who was imprisoned under Viktor Yanukovych, announced that she will run for the country’s presidency in the May elections. The strongest contender among many for the position is Vitaly Klitschko, the former boxer who became famous as one of the leaders of the protesters against Yanukovych. Russia will pay a price for its annexation of Ukraine. Its economics minister, Alexei Ulyukayev, predicted that the outflow of capital from the country in 2014 could reach $100 billion. The World Bank anticipates that Russia’s economy will shrink by 1.8 percent, not counting the effect of sanctions. See http://news.yahoo.com/imf-throws-ukraine-financial-lifeline-russian-economy-slump-094833575--business.html; and http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304688104579465411325759436?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702304688104579465411325759436.html. (The) Ukraine 27 March 2014The Washington Post recently published an article about whether it is proper to write Ukraine with or without an article, but it was filled with inaccuracies. The controversy emerged at least four decades ago when Ukrainian immigrants in English-speaking countries argued that since England, France, Germany, and other countries appear without an article, Ukraine should as well–no matter that the Netherlands, United Kingdom, and even United States require an article. Out of deference to their wishes, academics and publishers began to eliminate the article after 1991, when Ukraine became an independent state.. Similarly, the New York Times announced that it would spell Romania with an o instead of a u after the 1989 revolution. The Communist regime had demanded the change, which the Americans largely ignored, but the preference of the newly democratic state and the euphoria of the fall of communism in East-Central Europe and the Balkans melted the cold-war stubbornness. The presence or absence of the article has nothing to do with the independence of Ukraine from the standpoint of grammar. Certainly, it has no connection with a precise translation from Ukrainian because that Slavic language does not have an article. In fact, the only Slavic language with an article is Bulgarian, which adds articles as an ending to nouns. Another difficulty with the piece in The Washington Post is the confusion of the preposition in Slavic languages with the article in English, but prepositions never are translated as articles. Furthermore, the author addressed the use of two prepositions when referring to Ukraine in Slavic languages. In the past, Russians spoke of going to or being in Ukraine as na, but since 1991, the Ukrainians preferred v. Both prepositions mean in, but na also can mean on. This also has nothing to do with the question of independence, aside from the perception of some Ukrainians. In Slavic languages, certain locations require v and others must use na. In Czech, for example, one speaks of being v Washingtonu, that is, in Washington, but because Florida is a peninsula, the proper usage is na Floridě, which one could translate literally as on Florida. Similarly, in Czech and Slovak, one goes to or is in Ukraine using the preposition na, not v. Finally, Ukraine, as a name, means at the border, but that can imply a region, as it does in the case of Ukraine, and not simply a strip of land a few kilometers away from an actual border. Some interpretations of the origin of the term imply that the name relates more to territory, since kraj in Slavic languages may mean district, province, country, and the like. Those living in the region are an ethnic mix of Eastern Slavs who inhabited the territory since the medieval state of Kievan Rus’, along with Poles, Russians, and Lithuanians, who migrated to the area, and finally Tatars (Mongols) and others who either traversed the area or once ruled it. The country has no natural boundaries, aside from a small portion in the western border that runs along the Carpathian Mountains and the Black Sea. The rivers that help define the territory are hardly a barrier to human movement. As a result, Ukraine the middle ages and in early-modern Europe has been the cradle of Kievan Rus’, part of Poland-Lithuania, Russia, and the Mongol Horde, or independent. In modern times, parts of Ukraine have been in Russia, Austria (after 1867 Austria-Hungary), Poland, and Czechoslovakia. Much of Ukraine was independent for a few years as a result of the March 1918 Treaty of Brest-Litovsk between the Soviet Union and the Central Powers. Portions of it entered the Soviet Union between 1917 and 1922, depending on the location. During the Second World War, certain areas were in the General Government or the Reichskommissariat Ukraine. As the Red Army repelled the Germans, the territory returned to the Soviet Union. Solomon Wank (1930-2014) 25 March 2014The noted Habsburg historian, Solomon Wank, passed away on 19 March. He taught at Franklin and Marshall College in Lancaster, PA, and his research centered on Austro-Hungarian foreign policy. He was the former editor of the Austrian History Yearbook and a member of a number of the professional organizations, including the Czechoslovak Studies Association. See http://h-net.msu.edu/cgi-bin/logbrowse.pl?trx=vx&list=HABSBURG&month=1403&week=d&msg=TSIYJn0mRiVVdp9MCPPRJw. Czech Republic Adopts EU Fiscal Pact 25 March 2014The Czech government, now more liberal than in the past, has adopted the European Union’s Fiscal Pact, making the United Kingdom the only member state the only exception. It requires deficits of 3 percent, debt levels of 60 percent of GDP, and structural deficits of a maximum of 0.5 percent of economic output. The government has approved the Fiscal Pact, which the legislature must ratify, as a step toward the eventual adoption of the euro. The country is only required to meet the targets once it enters the eurozone. See http://euobserver.com/news/123615 and http://www.radio.cz/en/section/news/czech-government-approves-joining-eu-fiscal-pact. Ukraine Withdraws from Crimea 25 March 2014On Monday, 24 March, a number of news items related to the Crimean crises and Ukraine. First, Ukraine has ordered its forces to withdraw from Crimea, and the Ukrainian general staff estimated that half of its officers in Crimea have defected to the Russians. Second, the G7 met at The Hague and formally announced that it is cancelling the Sochi meeting in the summer with Russia. Also at The Hague, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met for the first time with his Ukrainian counterpart, Andriy Deshchytsia, as well as with the American secretary of state, John Kerry. The major issue was the ongoing crisis in the eastern part of Ukraine. Finally, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Russian President Vladimir Putin both agreed in a phone call to support an OSCE observer team in eastern Ukraine. See http://news.yahoo.com/russian-troops-seize-ukraine-marine-crimea-soldiers-064157958.html; http://news.yahoo.com/putin-merkel-back-ukraine-osce-mission-phone-call-181957615.html; http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26713727; and http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/russian-and-ukrainian-foreign-ministers-meet/2014/03/24/88ade884-b382-11e3-bab2-b9602293021d_story.html. Saakashvili Will Not Return to Georgia 25 March 2014Georgia’s former president, Mikhail Saakashvili, stated that he will not return to Georgia for questioning about a variety of matters, including the death of the prime minister while he was in office. Many perceive the charges against him and his associates as politically motivated, and several European Union politicians have encouraged Saakashvili to remain in his wife’s native country, the Netherlands. See http://news.yahoo.com/saakashvili-says-not-return-georgia-160812902.html. Miroslav Štěpán (1945-2014) 25 March 2014The former leader of the Prague Communist party and former member of the Presidium of the Communist party, Miroslav Štěpán, has died. He was a supporter of harsh crackdowns on protesters in 1988 and 1989, including the famous 17 November 1989 student protest march. During the 1989 revolution, he once addressed workers, stating that “in no country–not developing, socialist, or capitalist–it is impossible that fifteen-year-old children would determine when the president should go or when he should come and who he should be.” The workers drowned out his speech, many yelling that they were not children. For his orders to use water canons and tear gas during the 1989 Velvet Revolution, a court in 1989 sentenced him to four years in prison, but in October 1991, he was released. He established an extreme left movement in 1993 and in 1995 became the general secretary of the ultraleft Czechoslovak Party of Communists. He was an unrepentant Communist who never held political office after 1989, even though he twice ran for the Czech Senate. See http://news.yahoo.com/czech-communist-hardliner-jailed-abuse-power-dies-prague-192451895.html and http://radio.cz/en/section/curraffrs/former-communist-hardliner-miroslav-stepan-dies-unrepentant. Brussels Forum and Crimea 23 March 2014 UPDATE!For a report on the Brussels Forum, an annual meeting that included European Union, American, and Russian diplomats, see http://euobserver.com/foreign/123577. There were lively exchanges between Russian and western diplomats, and a major issue was how to prevent further Russian partitions of countries in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus. Another NATO official speaking at a different event reiterated the threat of a Russian takeover of the Russian-speaking Transnistria in Moldova, a country between Romania and Ukraine. See http://news.yahoo.com/nato-commander-warns-russian-threat-separatist-moldova-region-121716150.html. For detailed information on the comments of General Philip Breedlove about Transnistria and elsewhere, see http://euobserver.com/foreign/123588. Meanwhile, Russian forces are consolidating their hold over Crimea by taking the last remaining military bases. There has been only a limited amount of resistance, to the credit of the Ukrainian forces, but many of the Ukrainian soldiers are frustrated with their government’s unwillingness to defend the country against Russia. For the latest base takeovers, see http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/23/world/europe/ukraine.html?hpw&rref=world&_r=0 and http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2014/03/22/292834063/major-ukrainian-air-base-in-crimea-handed-over-to-russia. The European Union was a recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize, and the Ukrainian military should be next, given the remarkable restraint it has shown over the past weeks. Had its commanders ignored the civilian leaders in Ukraine or had its troops not been so well disciplined, the world would now be facing an ethnic war on the European Union and NATO’s doorstep. One Tatar’s Death Brings Fears 22 March 2014Scott Simon of NPR considers the implications around the death of one young Tatar, whom unknown pro-Russian forces in Crimea beat and tortured before disposing his body in a forest. Tatars in Crimea fear that Russian occupation has unleashed heretofore hidden anti-Tatar sentiments. The signs of potential persecution may be minor, such as Xs painted on the doors of Tatars, but they are ominous. EU-Ukraine Sign Partial Association Treaty 22 March 2014European Union and Ukrainian leaders signed the historic partnership agreement on 21 March, but only 2 percent of the 1,378 pages. The two sides agreed on political issues, such as joint recognition and the guarantee of Ukraine’s borders. Another ceremony will take place shortly after the 25 May Ukrainian presidential elections to cover the economic terms, including a free-trade agreement. There were several reasons for a partial treaty: the desire not to provoke Russia politically and economically, the need for Ukrainian politicians to prepare their citizens for the difficult economic reforms that the treaty will entail, and the desire to placate some EU states that are against enlargement. The complete treaty implies that Ukraine has a right to EU membership if it fulfills all of the treaty’s provisions. Despite signing a partial agreement, the Ukrainians came away with an important economic concession. After the ceremony, the president of the European Council, Herman Van Rompuy, stated: “The European Union also stands ready to help restore macro-economic stability in the country and to remove custom duties on Ukrainian exports to the EU for a while, so as to advance some of the full Agreement's trade benefits. It is a sign of our solidarity.” See http://euobserver.com/foreign/123574; http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/21/us-ukraine-crisis-eu-agreement-idUSBREA2K0JY20140321; and http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_Data/docs/pressdata/en/ec/141733.pdf. The text of the full agreement is at http://eeas.europa.eu/ukraine/assoagreement/assoagreement-2013_en.htm. Two Commentators Consider Ukraine 21 March 2014In an essay for The New Republic, the author and journalist Anne Applebaum considered the role of crowds in recent revolutionary transformations. She essentially poses a chicken-egg scenario: do crowds make the revolution (this is unlikely, according to Applebaum) or do the people who take power on the heels of the protest make the difference (for her, this is the crucial factor). The answer–rather the question–is more nuanced. Crowds usually have leadership, which is what guarantees their growth in number and influence. So the real deciding factors that will yield a positive outcome of a popular revolution are the type of crowd, its leadership, the people who assume power, and the willingness of the crowd to continue backing the new leaders. Ukraine is in that final stage, and it seems that, for now, the crowd, although much diminished, is willing to grant its new leaders more time to consolidate the democratic revolution that Maidan represented. See http://www.newrepublic.com/article/117091/ukraine-and-other-people-powered-revolutions-are-overrated. In an article for The Los Angeles Times, historian Timothy Garton Ash, who is at Oxford and the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, believes that Ukraine has to abandon hopes of getting back Crimea and focus on not losing more of its territory to Russia. Its leaders need to promise and deliver reforms that amount to federalization, even though that is something the Russians have encouraged. For their part, the West must aid through diplomacy, advice, and funding. Ash’s advice is sound, and it appears that politicians in Brussels, Washington, and Kyiv are doing the sorts of things that Ash recommends. The question is whether they will manage to do enough and do it quickly to stave of frustration among Ukrainians and separatism among Russian-Ukrainians. See http://www.latimes.com/opinion/commentary/la-oe-0321-garton-ash-ukraine-crimea-putin-20140321,0,2390003.story#axzz2wZQHiN1c. The EU Plays Wisely 21 March 2014As the European Union and the United States were placing additional sanctions on Russia for invading and annexing Crimea, the AP reported that pro-Russian crowds captured two Ukrainian naval vessels in Sevastopol without any casualties. The EU announced that it has included another 11 individuals around President Vladimir Putin on its list of those facing sanctions. It also cancelled the EU-Russia summit scheduled later this year, and both Germany and France also have scuttled high-level meetings with Russia. The Americans expanded their list of those facing sanctions to 20 individuals and one bank in an effort to target Putin’s financial contacts. Both the US and the EU are considering even more sanctions should the crisis escalate. In retaliation, Putin placed travel sanctions on top US officials, including President Barack Obama. He promised no new sanctions, in the face of the added sanctions from the West, and he mocked the most recent ones, stating that he will open an account at the bank the US targeted. Russia, however, is demanding that Ukraine pay $5 billion in loans and may require the return of $11 billion in previously granted rebates for Russian gas. The EU’s most important move, however, was not directly linked with Crimea but well may diffuse future Crimea-like crises. The EU has announced that it will sign an association agreement with Ukraine in a matter of days and prepare a broader agreement within a few months. It will take similar steps with Georgia and Moldova, both of which have break-away states that Russia recognizes. This is the sort of approach that the Moldovan president was hoping for in his remarks on 19 March that this web site noted here. The EU’s policy not only reassures the majority of Ukrainians, Moldovans, and Georgians, but it also will make separation, the loss of EU benefits, and association with Russia less attractive for the break-away regions. Slovak Presidential Elections 20 March 2014On 15 March, Slovaks went to the polls to elect a new president, and the two candidates who will face a run-off election on 29 March are the socialist Robert Fico of Smer-SD, who is a native of Topoľčany and the likely winner of the second round, and the entrepreneur and independent candidate Andrej Kiska, who is from Poprad. Kiska is campaigning as an outsider divorced from the corruption of current parties and politicians. See http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26588683. Fears about Russia 20 March 2014Russia now has control of two Ukrainian naval bases in Crimea and has taken a factory that is part of the assets of Petro Poroshenko, the “chocolate king” who supported the opposition against former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych. Ukraine recently announced that it will leave the Commonwealth of Independent States, which in 1991 succeeded the Soviet Union, and may require visas for Russians wishing to enter Ukraine See http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26659578 and http://neweasterneurope.eu/articles-and-commentary/1116-conflict-in-crimea. After imposing some economic sanctions in the wake of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and cancelling the G8 economic summit in Sochi that was scheduled for June 2014, European Union leaders are unsure as to their next steps should the Russians take more of Ukraine. Germany would increase the number of those included on the sanction list. The French have suggested they would cancel the construction of two Mistral amphibious assault ships for the Russian Navy. The French foreign minister also noted that the United Kingdom, which hosts a great deal of Russian investment, must share in the economic pain that accompany sanctions. See http://euobserver.com/foreign/123536. The head of NATO, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, has indicated that Russia may be contemplating a move against Estonia because of stepped-up accusations that the Estonians are mistreating their Russian-speaking minority. The border of Estonia, the northern most Baltic State, is less than 100 miles from St. Petersburg, Russia. There is another concern in the south, where Moldova’s president, Nicolae Timofti, has requested that the EU increase the pace of his country’s accession to the EU. Moldova borders Ukraine and Romania, and the elongated territory of Transnistria, a 1,600 square mile territory situated between Moldava and Ukraine on the left bank of the Nistru (Dnester) River, has proclaimed its independence from Moldova and wishes to join Russia. See http://euobserver.com/foreign/123545 and http://euobserver.com/tickers/123541. An extremely good article on the situation in Transnistria and Moldova is at http://neweasterneurope.eu/articles-and-commentary/1136-crimean-gagauzia. Putin’s Speech Regarding Crimea 19 March 2014 UPDATED!Upon annexing Crimea on 18 March 2014, President Vladimir Putin addressed deputies of the State Duma, members of the Federation Council, heads of Russian regions, and civic leaders. He first outlined the historic justifications for Russia’s claim on the peninsula:
In citing Crimea as an important territory of Kievan Rus’, Putin assumed that it was a Russian state. In fact, it was an early East Slavic state, which developed at a time when differentiations between Russian, Belarussian, and Ukrainian were in their infancy. In terms of early East Slavic history, Ukraine has as much right to claim Crimea as Russia. Using history as a justification for claiming territory is always tenuous the farther one goes back in time, and were it not for a strong Russian presence on the peninsula, it would be possible for the Tatars to claim it as part of their historic Mongol Horde (Tatars, of course, are an important minority on the peninsula), and the same could be said for the Greeks and Turks, both of whom controlled Crimea. Putin also accounted for why Russia suddenly wanted the territory that has been part of Ukraine since 1954:
The Russian president has been relatively quiet about his analysis of the situation in Ukraine immediately before and shortly after the flight of former Ukrainian president, Viktor Yanukovych. In this speech, however, he explained that:
Putin went on to explain that the new Ukrainian government was preparing a language law that would have tramped on the rights of non-Ukrainian speakers, but Western leaders pressured the Ukrainian government to shelve the proposal, which they likely will revisit in the future. He called the current government “the ideological heirs of [Stepan] Bandera” (1909-1959), who in the 1930s had struggled for Ukrainian independence. When the Germans invaded in 1941, Bandera established an independent Ukraine, with the hopes that an alliance with Nazi Germany would guarantee its existence. The Germans arrested Bandera, eventually holding him at Sachsenhausen Concentration Camp. In 1944, the Germans realized that Bandera might be useful in organizing Ukrainian resistance to the Soviets as the Germans retreated. Once unleashed in the countryside, Bandera’s forces not only fought the Soviets but also persecuted Poles and Jews in an effort to clear Ukraine of minorities. Putin reasoned that, with the chaos in Ukraine and the lack of respect for non-Ukrainians, the Russians “could not leave this plea unheeded; we could not abandon Crimea and its residents in distress.” He addressed Ukraine directly, stating the “we do not want to harm you in any way, or to hurt your national feelings. We have always respected the territorial integrity of the Ukrainian state . . . We do not want to divide Ukraine; we do not need that. As for Crimea, it was and remains a Russian, Ukrainian, and Crimean-Tatar land.” In his speech, Putin noted that, since the eighteenth century, Russia has faced attempts to “contain” it. Furthermore, he decried the efforts of the European Union and the United States, since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, to advance their influence eastward, without regard to Russian strategic interests. He also reassured Russians that the country will weather the sanctions that the West has imposed in it. Given the gravity of the Crimean crisis in the context of Russian strategic and ethnic interests, Putin’s speech is a crucial window to understanding the Kremlim’s perspective on Eastern Europe and the Black Sea region. It will remain one of the landmark documents of post-1991 Russian history. For the complete text of Putin’s speech, see http://eng.kremlin.ru/news/6889#sel=. Ukrainian Naval Base in Russian Hands 19 March 2014Russian troops have taken the headquarters of the Ukrainian Navy in the port city of Sevastopol. See http://news.yahoo.com/russian-forces-storm-ukraine-naval-headquarters-crimea-121414731--finance.html. Volkswagen Plant in Poland 18 March 2014Volkswagen has announced that it will construct a plant to produce the Crafter delivery van in Września, Poland, just east of Poznań. The facility will employ at least 2300 individuals, and it will begin to produce vehicles in late 2016. The Polish worker is approximately 5.5 times cheaper than a German worker. See http://news.yahoo.com/volkswagen-spend-over-1-billion-van-plant-poland-111731886--sector.html. Putin Claims No Interest in Eastern Ukraine 18 March 2014Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed that he has no interest in the eastern part of Ukraine but that reattaching Crimea to Russia corrected an injustice that took place 60 years ago. In other events related to the crisis, Russians allegedly shot to death a Ukrainian officer in Crimea while they were taking over part of a base. The United States and Germany will send inspectors to fly over Belarus and Russia to determine specifics about troop movements as part of the Open Skies agreement. See http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/19/world/europe/ukraine.html?hpw&rref=world&_r=0; and http://rt.com/news/usa-inspection-russia-skies-258/. Crimea Annexed 18 March 2018On 18 March, Russian President Vladimir Putin annexed Crimea into the Russian Federation, after having recognized Crimea as an independent state the day before. The celebratory atmosphere among the Crimean representatives as well as Putin and those around him during the signing did not resound abroad in the same manner. Ukraine responded with a vow that it never will acknowledge the Russian seizure of Crimea, and western countries have begun to announce their support of Kiv. Putin still must secure ratification and approval of the annexation treaty, but that appears to be a formality. See http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26630062. Sanctions against Russians and Ukrainians 17 March 2014The European Union and the United States imposed sanctions that involve travel bans and asset freezes against Russians and Ukrainians after the referendum on Sunday, 16 March, in Crimea. Of those who voted, 96.77 percent expressed their desire to become part of Russia (the voter turnout was 83 percent). The US and EU do not recognize Russia’s occupation of Crimea or the validity of the referendum. In response to the voting, the US named 11 individuals, including former Ukrainian president Victor Yanukovych and two individuals close to Russian President Vladimir Putin. The EU list of sanctions includes 21 individuals, but officials did not make it public.The press release from the White House that describes the sanctions and includes the list of names is at http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/03/17/fact-sheet-ukraine-related-sanctions. See also http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/03/17/ukraine-crisis-idINL6N0ME0TR20140317. Referendum in Crimea 16 March 2014 UPDATE!Authorities in Crimea claim that more than 95 percent of voters have elected to have Crimea join Russia. Ukraine and many in Crimea, including the Crimean Tatars, are criticizing the results and the conditions under which the referendum took place. Depending on Russia’s next steps, the West may impose sanctions on Russia. With tens of thousands in Moscow protesting Russia’s handling of the situation in Crimea, President Vladimir Putin may at least delay Russia’s annexation of Crimea and may hesitate to take more Ukrainian territory. See http://news.yahoo.com/crimeans-overwhelmingly-vote-secession-203613036.html and http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26593249. UPDATE! The White House released a statement condemning the referendum in Crimea, even before the authorities released the final results. It is available at http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/03/16/statement-press-secretary-ukraine. Reports about irregularities in the polling are at http://www.todayszaman.com/news-342200-as-vote-held-in-ukraines-crimea-allegations-of-poll-rigging-intimidation.html. Putin Plays War Games 13 March 2014 UPDATE!Russia initiated war games close to the Ukrainian border, and the United States sent fighter jets to central Poland. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who has attempted to keep good ties with Russia, warned that ineffective negotiations over Crimea will result in the European Union taking actions that “will cause massive damage to Russia, both economically and politically.” Merkel ruled out military action. See http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/14/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSBREA1Q1E820140314; and http://www.dw.de/german-chancellor-merkel-addresses-parliament-on-ukraine/a-17493628 for Merkel’s remarks. Early Friday morning, 14 March (13 March in the US), rival Ukrainian and Russian demonstrators in Donetsk scuffled after managing to break a police line, and one person died. See http://euobserver.com/tickers/123461 and http://news.yahoo.com/russia-holds-war-games-near-ukraine-merkel-warns-003811476.html. This is the sort of incident that President Vladimir Putin will use as a pretext for invading the eastern part of Ukraine in order to partition the country or to occupy all of Ukraine. With his prior remarks that Russia has the right to intervene in Ukraine to protect its interests, Putin would not exclude an invasion of Ukraine. He also is aware that the West will do nothing militarily to risk a war with Russia over Ukraine. Furthermore, because the West’s need for Russian petroleum products, including natural gas, and rubles for investment, he likely will gamble on the fact that sanctions would not be so economically disruptive, especially in the long run. There are many who are drawing parallels between Ukraine and Georgia in 2008 and recent examples of countries fracturing,, but the most appropriate parallel, although not precise, by any means, is the Munich Agreement of 1938, when France, Britain, and Italy allowed Germany to partition Czechoslovakia. On the dangers of such comparisons, see http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/03/10/why-america-must-stop-comparing-ukraine-to-world-war-ii.html and http://hnn.us/article/154995. The referendum in Crimea is this Sunday. Crimean Independence 13 March 2014The Crimean parliament has voted to declare independence from Ukraine, but if the referendum to be held on Sunday shows that the majority are in favor of unification with Russia, Crimea will open negotiations to become a republic within Russia. For details and other updates, see http://neweasterneurope.eu/articles-and-commentary/1116-conflict-in-crimea. Meanwhile, the president of Ukraine, Oleksandr Turchynov, stated that the country will not use force against Russia Action in Crimea would expose the eastern border regions. Furthermore, he reasoned that “"no one should doubt that Ukrainians are prepared to defend their country . . . [but] “the memory of our people's terrible losses during the [recent] protests in Kiev is still fresh; we cannot permit more bloodshed.” See http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2014/03/12/289398287/ukraine-wont-fight-russia-in-crimea-acting-president-says?utm_medium=Email&utm_source=DailyDigest&utm_campaign=20140312. Ukrainian National Guard 11 March 2014The Ukrainian government has created a national guard to supplement its military forces, which it said are ineffective because of the misrule of President Victor Yanukovych. The government stressed that the national guard and the military are not to provoke Russia, which would welcome any opportunity to escalate the ongoing crisis, and it emphasized that the national guard is to protect citizens “from criminals and from internal or external aggression.” The Ukrainian prime minister, Arseny Yatseniuk, claimed that the1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances required that Russia remove its troops from Crimea and that the United States, United Kingdom, France, and China help defend Ukraine, although the treaty contains no specific intervention clauses. At the same time, Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons when it joined the Non-Proliferation Treaty in 1994, and Yatseniuk warned that the outcome of the standoff with Russia will determine whether world leaders can persuade North Korea and Iran to abandon their nuclear weapons. See http://news.yahoo.com/confrontation-ukraine-diplomacy-stalls-011314222.html. Corruption and EU Elections in Romania 11 March 2014As Romania approaches the elections for members of the European Parliament, its governing coalition split, and the two former allies are running separately: the Social Democratic party under the prime minister, Victor Ponta, and the National Liberal party of Crin Antonescu. Corruption continues to be a major problem in the country, and several political bribes are in the news. As a sign of the corrupt nature of Romanian politics, Ponta’s wife is running as a European Parliament candidate, as is the wife of Antonescu and perhaps the daughter of Romania’s president. See http://euobserver.com/eu-elections/123389. Khodorkovsky in Ukraine 11 March 2014The Russian dissident, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, who was released from prison through an amnesty program and is now living in Switzerland, addressed several audiences while on a tour of Ukraine. He contends that Russian President Vladimir Putin billed the Ukrainian revolution as a coup d’etat because he fears the repercussions for Russian politics. He noted that “Ukraine could become a new beacon and source of values, values for a new Russia, which has not yet been created.” Khodorkovsky warned Ukrainians not to expect help from the West to solve the Crimean crisis, but he encouraged his audiences by claiming that Ukraine can solve the crisis on its own and should do so peacefully. He suggested wide-ranging autonomy as a solution. See http://euobserver.com/foreign/123419. Tatars in Crimea 11 March 2014Several articles have appeared that consider the fears of Tatars in Crimea if the peninsula comes under Russian rule. See http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/05/tartar-ukraine-sunni-muslims-threat-russian-rule-crimea; http://www.pri.org/stories/2014-03-05/crimean-tatars-ukraine-russia-standoff-full-risk; and Update on Ukraine 11 March 2014
The Economics of the Crisis in Ukraine 11 March 2014In a recent editorial for Al Jazeera, Remi Piet, who teaches international affairs at Qatar University in Doha, Qatar, explains the role of economic moguls in the ouster of President Victor Yanukovych in Ukraine and the potential impact of economics on the current Crimean crisis. See http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2014/03/ukraine-goodbye-cold-war-hello-g-20143645051692739.html. For a lighter approach to the issue, see Kai Rissdal’s commentary “Loving the Global Economy” for PRI’s Marketplace at http://www.marketplace.org/topics/world/new-cold-war/loving-global-economy.
Update on Ukraine 6 March 2014On 6 March, Crimea’s parliament has voted to join Russia and to hold a referendum on 16 March on the issue, a move diplomats argue could not have occurred without the approval of Russia’s President Vladimir Putin. The projected referendum is earlier than previously announced dates. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian prime minister, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, offered to grant Crimea more autonomy to prevent it from entering Russia. On 5 March, the United States Department of State released “President Putin’s Fiction: Ten False Claims about Ukraine,” which debunks Putin’s assertions that Russia is not engaging in a military occupation of Crimea. The web address for the site is http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2014/03/222988.htm. On the same day, the American secretary of state, John Kerry, attempted to arrange a meeting between the Ukrainian and Russian foreign ministers, but the Russian foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, declined the invitation. Kerry’s attempt may have been genuine, but it may have been a publicity stunt. Logically, Lavrov could not engage in any negotiation with his Ukrainian counterpart because Russia does not recognize the new government of Ukraine. Because of the crisis, the value of the Russian rouble dropped 10-12 percent on 3 March, gained 5-6 percent on 4 March, and then fell again by less than 2 percent on 5 March. Also on 5 March, the European Union voted to provide Ukraine with €11 billion ($15 billion) in loans and grants over the next year and to consider visa-free travel for Ukrainians wishing to visit the EU. The day before, the Ukrainian parliament ratified a €610 million loan from the EU that officials had negotiated during the Yanukovych regime. The EU Commission president, José Manuel Barroso, indicated that the EU could provide the €610 million quickly.
Supporters of Ukraine’s ousted President Viktor Yanukovych bugged a phone conversation between the European Union’s High Representative for Foreign and Security Affairs, Catherine Ashton, and the Estonian foreign minister, Urmas Paet, after the latter’s one-day visit to Ukraine. “The impressions are sad,” Paet admitted, because the politicians in the coalition have a “dirty past.” He was referring to the fact that many of the ministers have ties with the old regime, but many believe their expertise is useful. Paet noted that the physician and respected opposition leader, Olga Bohomolets, would enter the government only if she could have her own team and enact real healthcare reforms. The Regions party has accepted the new government, but there have been assaults against parliament members. Furthermore, the protesters will remain on the streets until real reforms begin. Paet recommended a loan package and real reforms. He expressed concerns that unrest may spread among Russians in the east and that some in the city of Donetsk already want to join Russia. Ashton noted that she admonished the victorious opposition about needing “to get through the short term first,” focusing on anti-corruption, and cooperating with “people working alongside until elections,” by which she meant advisors from the EU who are experts on political and economic reforms. That way, the citizens can become “confident in the [political] process.” According to Paet, Bogomolets claimed, based on her medical experience, that before the ouster of Yanukovych, the snipers killed both protesters and police. The current government does not want to investigate the matter, leading Paet to suspect that those responsible might be within the new coalition. Ashton stated that an investigation would be appropriate, and Paet concluded that such information could discredit the new government. The Estonian foreign ministry confirmed the conversation as genuine.
Ukraine in Crisis: A Historian’s View 5 March 2014David Austin Walsh, the editor of History News Network, interviewed Indiana University’s Padraic Kenney, a professor of history who specializes in the history of East-Central and Eastern Europe. The interview is at http://hnn.us/article/154891. The West’s Alternatives Regarding Ukraine 4 March 2014The response of the United Kingdom to the Crimean crisis now is apparent, even though the government claims that the secret document the BBC mistakenly photographed and leaked was not a policy roadmap (the photograph and readable text is available at http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-26426969). Apparently, the UK places business profits before Ukraine’s interests because it will not harm Russia’s assets in The City over the matter. Similarly, it decided that it only will humor Poland, which requested an emergency meeting of NATO, evoking Paragraph Four of the treaty because it feels its borders are threatened. The signal to President Vladimir Putin is clear: Ukraine does not fall within the economic or military interests of the UK. The EU may announce an economic aid package on Wednesday, while the International Monetary Fund wants more political stability and may wait until the 25 May presidential elections in Ukraine. Support for Ukraine is slow in coming from these quarters as well. America is more determined to at least embarrass or even punish Russia for its actions in Crimea than its allies because it is considering economic sanctions against Russian leaders. Furthermore, it has cancelled various military cooperative efforts. Finally, Secretary of State John Kerry, while visiting Ukraine, has promised a billion dollars in aid, primarily in an effort to offset Russia’s anticipated economic retaliation against Ukraine, which is dependent on Russian natural gas, as is Germany and much of the European Union. On 4 March, Putin stated that Russia will not take military action against Ukraine, unless it is a matter of last resort. The unanswered questions, of course, are how patient Russia would be and what it demands of Ukraine. Profits are paramount, however, and the Russian rouble, which lost value as of Monday over the occupation of Crimea and the threat of economic sanctions from the West, is rebounding on Tuesday, after Putin’s statement. Based on the West’s economic and strategic concerns, Ukraine is of marginal interest. Were it to be more important, the EU would have acted in a more concerted way to bolster the new government in Kyiv through diplomatic and economic support. Furthermore, the US, EU, and IMF would have taken steps quickly and in unison and not spent days discussing what action they might take in the near or distant future. At least the United States has been more resolute in demonstrating its support of Ukraine. In the end, Ukraine may never recover Crimea, but now policy makers must ask how shaken is the Ukrainians’ faith in the West and its willingness to aid in the economic and military defense of Ukraine, should that country form a closer partnership with the EU and NATO. Apparently, neither Russia nor the West has abandoned cold-war thinking. See http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/04/world/europe/top-russians-face-sanctions-by-us-for-crimea-crisis.html?hpw&rref=world&_r=0; http://euobserver.com/foreign/123346; http://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2014/03/04/economic-battle-over-ukraine-heats-up; and http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/kerry-in-kiev-pledges-1-billion-in-us-aid/2014/03/04/9f425fc0-a398-11e3-84d4-e59b1709222c_story.html. NATO Condemns Invasion of Crimea 3 March 2014At a meeting of the North Atlantic Council, NATO has condemned the Russian invasion of Crimea and has called on Moscow to withdraw its troops from Ukraine, which is one of the members of NATO’s Partnership for Peace program. NATO’s statement, which is available at http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_107681.htm, is diplomatic in nature and lists no consequences for Russia’s actions. See also http://euobserver.com/foreign/123329. Ukraine Mobilizes 2 March 2014President Barack Obama and German Chancellor Angela Merkel spoke separately with President Vladimir Putin as tensions escalated over the Russian invasion of Crimea and the continued threat of additional Russian action against its neighbor to the west. In response to Russia’s actions, the Ukrainian prime minister, Arseny Yatseniuk, announced the mobilization of his country’s military, claiming that Russia’s action “ is not a threat: this is actually the declaration of war to my country.” The US at the United Nations has called for Russian-Ukrainian negotiations with international observers on the ground in Ukraine to prevent conflict. The US secretary of state, John Kerry, will visit Ukraine in a show of support of Ukrainiane and to discuss options. See http://news.yahoo.com/putin-ready-invade-ukraine-kiev-warns-war-011805827--finance.html and http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/02/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSBREA1Q1E820140302. Russia Prepares to Seize Crimea 1 March 2014Russia’s parliament has approved President Vladimir Putin’s request for troops to be stationed in Ukraine until the situation there “normalizes,” a phrase reminiscent of the terminology associated with the 1968 Warsaw Pact invasion of Czechoslovakia. On 28 February, President Barack Obama warned Russia that there would be “costs” for invading Ukraine after soldiers in unmarked uniforms took over two airports in Crimea, reinforcements arrived at Russian bases in Crimea, Russian troop exercises occurred near Ukraine’s borders, and Russian rhetoric against Ukraine’s new government was belligerent. Furthermore, the Crimean legislature and Sergey Aksyonov, its prime minister (the chairman of the Council of Ministers of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea), have called on Russia for assistance. President Obama has praised the new Ukrainian government for its restraint. The president of Ukraine, Olexander Turchynov, appealed to the Russian government to stop provocations that it can use as a prelude to annexing Crimea and to begin negotiations. Some in Ukraine, however, are calling for military mobilization. Shy of a civil war and a war with a much more powerful Russia that it certainly would not win, Ukraine can do little to prevent Russia from having its way regarding Crimea, which has been a part of Ukraine only for the past 60 years. For this reason, the situation in Ukraine is reminiscent to that of 2008 in Georgia. Ukraine may well lose Crimea, but another question will be whether Russia will tolerate the presence of additional Russian minorities in a Ukraine that is abandoning Moscow and is looking toward Brussels. In all of Ukraine, which has approximately 45.5 million people, Russians are approximately 17 percent of the population, while Ukrainians account for about 78 percent. Aside from Crimea, there are approximately seven million Russians in Ukraine. More than two dozen of Ukraine’s 490 districts and more than three dozen out of 118 city districts are more than 50 percent Russian. Most of these districts are in the east and close to the Russian border. Since geography has not endowed Ukraine with natural borders, Ukraine historically has had fluid borders, Russian desires to partition Ukraine, assuming it cannot bring the entire country back into its fold, may not stop with Crimea. Unfortunately for the Ukrainians, their country has become a test case of how close the Russians will tolerate the potential expansion of the European Union and NATO. See http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2014/03/01/284345466/russias-parliament-prepared-to-authorize-crimea-intervention?utm_medium=Email&utm_source=DailyDigest&utm_campaign=20140301; http://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-says-russia-sent-troops-obama-appeals-putin-102613736.html; http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26394846; http://news.yahoo.com/crimeas-leader-cements-power-asks-moscows-help-134054929.html; and http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2014/02/28/obama-warns-russia-on-ukraine/ (includes the full text of President Obama’s remarks). Carnuntum 28 February 2014In September 2011, there was a posting on this website about the discovery of a gladiator school in the ancient Roman settlement of Carnuntum, not far from Vienna, Austria. Archaeological research has determined that the school of more than 30,000 square feet had living quarters, recovery facilities for gladiators, courtyards for various training purposes, and a small wooden practice stadium. Researchers have constructed a virtual three-dimensional model of the school that is available at http://www.livescience.com/43709-ancient-gladiator-school-found-in-austria.html. International Health Care Rankings 28 February 2014Bloomberg regularly posts various lists, and the most recent among its scores of offerings covers health care. There are 48 categories, each with an efficiency score based on life expectancy, health-care cost as a percentage of GDP, and health-care cost per capita. The most efficient, at 92.6 percent, is Hong Kong, while the least efficient is Brazil, at 17.4 percent. The United States is ranked at 46th place, with 30.8 percent, just above Serbia and Brazil. Doing better than the US is Iran (45th place), Turkey (44th place), the Dominican Republic (43rd place), and Columbia (42nd place). Communist-run Cuba came in at 28th place, with an efficiency of 46.8 percent (North Korea is not ranked). Results for the ranked Central European and Balkan countries, most of which inherited the communist health-care systems and all of which have national health-care systems, are as follows:
Life expectancy in the US is at 78.6 years (24th on the list), while the highest, Hong Kong, is at 83.4 years, and the worst is Iran, with 73.0 years. In Central Europe and the Balkans, Austria, Germany, and Greece have better life expectancies than the US. Recent Events in Ukraine and Crimea 28 February 2014After the euphoria in much of Ukraine after former President Victor Yanukovych fled Kyiv, problems emerged. As the Ukrainians pieced together a new government that reflected a wide range of interests and included experts, diplomats, and former dissidents, Russia refused to recognize the country’s new president and government. On 26 February Russia began what it claimed were previously scheduled military maneuvers near Ukraine’s borders. Yanukovych is now on the Ukrainian government’s most wanted list for mass murder, and the government wants him tried in The Hague. The Ukrainian authorities also have warrants out on approximately 50 of Yanukovych’s associates. On 28 February, Yanukovych defended himself during a television appearance from Rostov-on-Don, Russia, blaming fascists for driving him from power and vowing to continue struggling “for Ukraine’s future.” Meanwhile, various countries are taking steps to freeze the assets of Yanukovych and those around him. Ukrainian government sources revealed that Yanukovych, his son, and their associates stole approximately $37 billion from government coffers. Ironically, the United States, European Union, and International Monetary Fund are considering a €25 billion loan over the next two years for Ukraine to avoid bankruptcy. Events in Crimea have been most disturbing. Unrest broke out in the predominantly Russian province, and on 27 February, gunmen seized the local parliament, where they hoisted a Russian flag. On Friday, 28 February, the local parliament voted to conduct a referendum regarding Crimea’s sovereignty. On that same day, commandos in more than ten Russian helicopters took over two airports in the province. The Russians have denied involvement, claiming the men were local irregular commandos, but Ukrainian border police stated that the helicopters had entered Ukrainian air space from Russia. Despite the roadblocks and the presence of armed men with no insignia, the airports are functioning normally. In the past few days, the West has urged Russia to respect Ukraine’s integrity, and both the Russians and Western powers have agreed that Ukraine must remain united. The question is whether Russia believes that it must invade Ukraine to preserve its unity and insure its friendliness to Moscow. During an interview on 27 February with NPR, the British foreign secretary, William Hague, responded this way when pushed to comment about Russian involvement in a separatist movement and whether Russia would invade Ukraine: “We can't know for sure how Russia will react to these events. But I don't think, I, as British foreign secretary, should be talking up the tension in any way. So I hope that all countries will approach it in that way. And I'm not going to feed the sense of an intensifying crisis in what I say.” In antiquity, Crimea hosted a number of people, including the Greeks. Kievan Rus had the peninsula in the tenth and eleventh centuries, after which it went to the Byzantine Empire and then other states. It was a tributary state under the Ottoman Empire until the Russians came into possession of it through the important 1774 Treaty of Küçük Kaynarca, which also placed Christians in the Ottoman Empire under Russian protection, giving the Russians an excuse to intervene in Ottoman affairs. In 1783, Russia annexed Crimea, which remained a part of Russia into the twentieth century. During the Second World War, the Germans occupied Crimea, and once they departed, Joseph Stalin ordered the expulsion of non-Russian groups, including the Crimean Tatars, claiming that they had collaborated with the enemy. Immediately before the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the Crimean Tatars began to return legally to Crimea. In February 1945, at the end of the Second World War, Winston S. Churchill, Franklin D. Roosevelt, and Stalin met in the Crimean city of Yalta to discuss strategies for the last stages of the war, including the new Polish borders. In 1954, Nikita S. Khrushchev, who was Russian but who had spent a part of his early career in Ukraine, transferred Crimea from Russia to Ukraine. When Ukraine became independent in 1991, Crimea, with its large Russian population, received autonomy. The Russians and Ukrainians divided the former Soviet Black Sea Fleet, and the Russian fleet remained at its base in Sevastopol. The population of Crimea is just shy of two million, 58 percent of which are Russian, 24 percent are Ukrainian, and 12 percent are Tatar. See http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10665800/Ukraines-new-government-Whos-who.html; http://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-warns-russia-gunmen-seize-crimea-parliament-144917725--sector.html; http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2014/02/ukraine-rivals-clash-as-russia-drills-troops-2014226133046510360.html; http://neweasterneurope.eu/articles-and-commentary/1050-crisis-in-kyiv-continuing-coverage-of-euromaidan-protests-in-ukraine; http://news.yahoo.com/alarm-ukraine-putin-puts-russian-troops-alert-131539654.html; http://news.yahoo.com/u-warns-banks-watch-ousted-ukraine-leader-moving-051953118--sector.html; http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2014/02/28/283878194/ousted-president-is-ready-to-fight-for-the-future-of-ukraine?utm_medium=Email&utm_source=DailyDigest&utm_campaign=20140228; http://news.yahoo.com/ukraines-yanukovich-says-continue-struggle-ukraines-future-132905478--finance.html; http://news.yahoo.com/armed-standoff-pro-russian-region-raises-ukraine-tension-033318395.html; http://euobserver.com/foreign/123261; http://www.npr.org/2014/02/28/283779824/ukraine-says-russian-forces-block-airport?utm_medium=Email&utm_source=DailyDigest&utm_campaign=20140228; http://nprberlin.de/post/british-diplomat-weighs-continental-crises (Hague interview); and http://hnn.us/article/154867 (an interview with Charles E. King, a professor of international affairs and government at Georgetown University that provides background on the recent history of Crimea). Albania, Protests, and Civil Society 28 February 2014When the Albanian government recently indicated that it would accept Syrian chemical weapons for disposal, Albanians protested, and the government reversed its decision. Protests in Albania have become commonplace, and their targets are policies of the right and the left. For a decade, a student protest organization, Mjaft (Enough), has been effective in getting people out on the streets. It does not welcome political interference, and it has an uneasy relationship with its former leader, Erion Veliaj, who became a Socialist and government minister. See http://euobserver.com/news/123272. EU Roma Inclusion Program 28 February 2014László Andor, the European Union commissioner for employment, social affairs, and inclusion, has announced a program targeted to improve the record of social inclusion of Roma in Bulgaria, Hungary, Italy, Slovakia, and Romania. The EU will invest approximately a million euros into education, employment, housing, and health for Roma citizens in the target countries to reduce “prejudice, intolerance, abuse, and social exclusion on a daily basis.” See http://euobserver.com/tickers/123271 and http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-14-193_en.htm. Romania Coalition Government Collapsed 28 February 2014The Liberals have withdrawn from the center-left government of Victor Ponta in Romania, and Ponta’s Social Democratic party is suffering from infighting. The difficulties involve a combination of policies and political infighting. Despite the difficulties, analysts expect Ponta to continue in office. See http://euobserver.com/tickers/123274; http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/25/romania-politics-idUSL3N0LU41B20140225; http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/25/us-romania-government-idUSBREA1O1ON20140225; and http://www.europeanvoice.com/article/2014/february/romanian-government-teeters-on-collapse/79821.aspx. Snyder, Petro, and Goodman on Ukraine 25 February 2014Timothy Snyder of Yale University, Nicolai Petro of Rhode Island University, and the reporter Amy Goodman discuss events in Ukraine at Democracy Now! They consider the nature of the coup d’etat that ultimately removed former President Victor Yanukovych from power and the current political role of Right Sector, which was instrumental in causing Yanukovych to flee but has no base in the Rada or in the government that is forming. Other topics are Yulia Tymoshenko and the potential of an east-west division of Ukraine. See http://www.democracynow.org/2014/2/24/a_coup_or_a_revolution_ukraine. Yanukovych on the Wanted List 24 February 2014Ex-President Victor Yanukovych is wanted for mass murder, according to an announcement Ukrainian officials made today. Meanwhile, Ukrainian citizens toured his lavish residence and marveled at the ostentatious display of luxury. See http://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-sets-european-course-ouster-yanukovich-022458499--business.html; and http://news.yahoo.com/documents-ukraine-leader-39-home-detail-spending-193927272.html?vp=1. Slovakia's EU Election Campaign 24 February 2014Smer-SD, the ruling socialist party in Slovakia, has announced that Maroš Šefčovič, who is a commission vice president and who heads inter-institutional relations and administration in Brussels, will lead the party’s ticket and will campaign energetically before the May EU Parliament elections. The party has not yet announced its entire slate of candidates. With Šefčovič’s energetic approach, the party is not only hoping to claim a victory in the elections but to increase citizens’ awareness and interest in the European Parliament. See http://euobserver.com/eu-elections/123241. The Lessons of the First World War 23 February 2014As the world approaches the centenary of the opening of the First World War this coming August, Victor Davis Hanson, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, has written an essay in The National Review that considers the lessons of the First World War. Hanson notes several lessons, including the faulty diplomacy and the German military’s mistaken notion that it could defeat France quickly, but he focuses in the end on the need for America to remain engaged in international affairs. The question, of course, is whether the US can remain engaged without resorting to conflict with the hopes of preventing conflict and whether it can learn from the European Union that sanctions and economic diplomacy may be just as strong as sabre rattling. Other factors that Hanson could have included in his essay were the belief in the invincibility of modern weapons, chauvinistic nationalism (Hanson mentions but does not discuss “unchecked nationalism”), and a press that reveled in the profits it garnered from feeding the nationalist bravado. Hanson has other problematic approaches, such as the notion that “Versailles was not harsh.” For Hanson’s essay, see http://www.nationalreview.com/article/371300/lessons-world-war-i-victor-davis-hanson. Maryland May Require Holocaust Reparations 23 February 2014Maryland may require Keolis, a French firm bidding to construct a rail line in the state, to pay reparations for the role of its predecessor company in transporting Jews to concentration camps during the holocaust. Keolis denies playing a role in the transports, claiming that it did not exist in its current form during the war, that there were no options but to transport the Jews, and that there were no profits to be had on such a venture. See http://www.npr.org/2014/02/21/280286640/maryland-bill-may-require-holocaust-reparations-from-rail-company?utm_medium=Email&utm_source=DailyDigest&utm_campaign=20140221. Maria von Trapp (1914-2014) 23 February 2014The last remaining child of the von Trapp family to flee Nazi-occupied Austria in 1938 that inspired The Sound of Music, Maria von Trapp, died on 18 February at her Vermont home. See http://movies.yahoo.com/news/maria-von-trapp-99-dies-vermont-005546425.html. Opposition Victory in Ukraine 23 February 2014The European Union and American economic sanctions against Ukraine that were imposed on 20 February as well as the settlement that same day that the foreign ministers of Poland, Germany, and France negotiated between the opposition leaders in Ukraine and President Victor Yanukovych that received a nod of approval from the United States were effective. Afterward, on 22 February, the Ukrainian Rada, including Yanukovych’s own party, voted to oust Yanukovych as president and to free Yulia Tymoshenko, the former prime minister who was imprisoned in October 2011, allegedly for political purposes. In her first act as a free woman, Tymoshenko addressed the protesters in Kyiv, congratulating them for their courage and success. She is well-known and may run for president, but many Ukrainians associate her with the country’s troubled past. Finally, she may need to seek medical attention since her health was an issue during her incarceration. In the meantime, as the Rada released Tymoshenko and stripped Yanukovych of his dictatorial powers, the security forces disappeared from Kyiv, and Yanukovych fled the capital for the eastern part of the country, where he referred to the change in power as a coup, an opinion which the Russians officially echoed. In Kyiv, protesters occupied the presidential grounds and revealed the opulent lifestyle of Yanukovych. On 22 February, the Rada elected Oleksander Turchinov (born 1964), the new speaker of the Rada and an ally of Tymoshenko, as interim president. The Rada also removed most of the members of Yanukovych’s government, and Turchinov is in the process of appointing new ministers. He set the date of 25 May for new presidential elections. A combination months of unrelenting protests as well as the last-minute imposition of economic sanctions along with EU-led negotiations brought down one of Eastern Europe’s dictators. By forcing Yanukovych from power, Ukraine avoided the scenario that gripped Romania in 1989, when security forces rallied with the communist leader, Nicolae Ceauşescu, against the police, military, and protesters during a brief civil war that ended with the dramatic capture, trial, and execution of Ceauşescu and his wife. The successes in Ukraine of the past few days pave the way for another chance at building democracy, which was unsuccessful after the November 2004 Orange Revolution that occurred after Viktor Yanukovych had rigged the presidential elections. He did not get into office then, but he managed to do so in 2010, after elections that observers accepted as fair. Now, the Ukrainians may be more savvy about their political choices, but the fact that they are willing to draw closer to the EU and that the EU will welcome Ukraine with an association agreement and billions of euros of investment may improve Ukraine’s chances for economic recover and prosperity as well as political stability. Although Russia is openly critical of the recent events that removed Yanukovych, it is unlikely that Russia would risk international condemnation with any covert or overt intervention. There still is a risk of unrest in Ukraine because the eastern and southern parts of the country have large Russian minorities, but there is a Russian majority only in Crimea. Furthermore, Yanukovych, whose own party abandoned him, is discredited and cannot serve as a rallying point to draw together the few Ukrainians who had supported him and Russians in Ukraine. There is no solidified Russian resistance in Ukraine, and one is unlikely to develop if a pluralistic democracy emerges. In that case, Ukraine will avoid civil war and ultimately will serve as a democratic example to Belarus, Russia, and other former Soviet states. Media Sources
Hungary’s Second World War Monument 23 February 2014Prime Minister Victor Orbán has announced that he will postpone the construction of a World War II memorial in the heart of Budapest until after European Union and national parliamentary elections, contests his ruling Fidesz party likely will win. The memorial includes a German eagle descending on the Archangel Gabriel, representing Hungary. Critics claim that it inadequately depicts the anti-Semitic actions of the regime of Admiral Miklós Horthy, who ruled Hungary between the two world wars and who allied Hungary with Germany during the Second World War. Horthy is a controversial figure because, despite his anti-Semitism, he was far less cooperative with the Germans about turning over Jews for transport and extermination than, for example, his counterpart ruling Slovakia. Late in the war, after Adolf Hitler realized that Horthy was attempting to arrange a separate peace with the Allies, Hitler removed Horthy from power and installed a truly fascist regime under Ferenc Szálasi. In the months Szálasi was in power, the Nazi SS and Szálasi’s supporters murdered thousands of Jews. This was the period when the Swedish diplomat, Raoul Wallenberg, was active in saving Jews in Hungary. See http://blogs.wsj.com/emergingeurope/2014/02/20/hungary-postpones-plan-to-erect-controversial-monument/?KEYWORDS=history. The EU Vote in the Czech Republic 21 February 2014The upcoming 23-24 May vote to elect representatives to the European Union Parliament in the Czech Republic may bring some surprises. The populist and anti-Roma Usvit (Dawn) party, under the leadership of a former travel agent, Tomio Okamura, himself half Czech and half Japanese-Korean, made inroads in the last Czech parliamentary elections and may attract voters once more. Another question is whether the former president, Václav Klaus, who is a staunch Eurosceptic, will run to become a member of the European Parliament. If he decides to do so, it is not known which political group will back him. See http://euobserver.com/eu-elections/123074. Potential Solution in Ukraine 21 February 2014After 70 people were killed in Ukraine on Thursday alone, President Victor Yanukovych has announced an agreement that the foreign ministers of Germany and Poland have brokered. In a statement he released today, he has promised a return to the 2004 constitution, early presidential elections, and an interim government. Although many protesters want Yanukovych’s immediate resignation, the three main opposition leaders have signed the agreement with Yanukovych. It still is unclear whether the president’s promises are enough to stop the violence. See http://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-president-announces-early-election-112902642.html and http://neweasterneurope.eu/articles-and-commentary/1050-crisis-in-kyiv-continuing-coverage-of-euromaidan-protests-in-ukraine, and http://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-leader-announces-39-truce-39-start-talks-212036733.html?vp=1. Conflict in Ukraine Continues 20 February 2014Despite the efforts of President Victor Yanukovych to quell the violence in Ukraine through an another truce with the opposition and the sacking of the country’s military leader, unrest continues with scores dead and hundreds wounded. In the meantime, the European Union and the United States are seeking to coordinate sanctions against Ukraine, which would hurt the top leadership and the economic magnates who support it, and have decried the deteriorating situation in the country. Yanukovych blamed the opposition leaders for the violence, and the military has referred to the protesters as terrorists. The Russians have alleged a coup attempt, a belief which the telephone conversation between American diplomats that sources leaked in the first week of February has fueled. While approximately 8 percent of the country’s inhabitants are Ukrainian, about 17 percent is Russian. Most of the violence is concentrated in the western part of the country, which is largely Ukrainian. The Russians are scattered in the eastern and southern parts of Ukraine (they form a majority in Crimea) and are supportive of the pro-Russian Yanukovych regime. 20 February 2014
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